An awful start to the election campaign has seen the Tories fall in popularity. With the rise in rival parties and a campaign to target safe Tory seats, there’s a chance they might not be the official opposition come July 5th.
Polling Tells the Tale
At their zenith in April 2020, the Tories enjoyed a 53% score on the ‘voting intention’ polls. Since then, they have been sliding steadily downwards.
Rival Parties Rising
The main rival to the Tories (outside of the Labour Party) was always the Lib Dems, but their polling has remained largely level. Instead, a resurgent right-wing party has started to eat into the Tories’ vote share.
Reform, Reformed
The right-wing has changed. Reform UK rose from the ashes of UKIP, and its vote intention polling has climbed. At one point, it was polling at 16% of the vote share, while the Tories had only 20%.
Conservatives Targeted Left, Right and Centre
Where once the government had one opposition party to worry about, a dismal 14 years in government has given them enemies on all fronts. It makes for a brutal election campaign.
Centrist Tories a Lib Dem Target
The Lib Dems have made public that they intend to target the moderate Tory voters in many seats. There’s a solid chance they’ll also eat into the Tory vote share because thousands of moderate Tories don’t like the direction the party is going in.
Red Wall Seats Might Return to Labour
In 2019, the ‘red wall’ seats – a band of seats in the north of England disrupted the traditional voting pattern and gave their vote to Boris Johnson. They did this on promises to ‘level up’ the UK. Those promises didn’t materialise, so expect Labour to win them back.
Reform Targeting the Right Wing
Those on the right of the political spectrum haven’t been happy with the way Brexit has been handled and the lack of progress on immigration. This has led to Reform mopping up much of the right-wing vote.
High Profile Losses Won’t Help
The next blow for Sunak is the loss of some very high-profile Tory MPs. Michael Gove, Theresa May, Andrea Leadsom, Graham Brady, and several others have announced their intention to step down, putting safe Tory seats in danger.
Tactical Voting Will Hurt Tories
There’s always a tactical vote, usually met with limited success. In this case, though, it feels different. There’s a genuine campaign to force a significant change. It has celebrity backing, and the Lib Dems will target specific seats.
Up to 50 Seats on a Knife Edge
Looking at data from the 2019 election, 50 seats are held by the Conservatives, where the majority is less than 4%. These seats are especially vulnerable.
122 Tory Seats Looking Uncertain
A more detailed look at the data shows the Tories hold 122 seats with a less-than-10% majority, which would also fall within the ‘at risk’ category.
Latest Polling Trends Show Movement
In the latest YouGov poll, Labour has 46% of the voting intention, Conservatives have 21%, and Reform has 15%. The worry for the Tories is that Reform is trending upwards, and they’re trending downwards, so it could all change.
Lack of Big Promise From Tories
The Tory party doesn’t really have an identifiable position on which they’re running. So far, their policy announcements all benefit the older members of society and do very little for the youth. They want to secure pensions and force 18-year-olds into National Service.
Labour Running on Economy
The largest thrust of the Labour campaign is to build the economy and sort the national finances. They’ve promised to grow the economy without tax rises so we can start growing again.
Reform Running on Immigration
As you’d expect, immigration reform is being implemented as their key policy. They want to stop immigration and incentivise the hiring of British workers by imposing higher levels of tax on immigrant workers.
A Landslide Will Win Election
We can be almost sure that a landslide victory will win this election. A centrist Labour has the backing of business. The Tories have committed the ultimate act of self-harm with Brexit, and tactical voting will do the rest.
Will the Tories Even Be the Opposition?
We’re faced with the genuine possibility that, for the first time in over 100 years, there’s a chance that the opposition party won’t be either the Tories or Labour.
Opposition Party Largest Outside of Government
The main opposition is the party with the second highest number of seats, and whilst it’s not especially likely, the Tories could lose enough seats to no longer be the main opposition.
Depends on Reform and Lib Dems
Wanderscot
Labour will win; we can be almost certain of that. What happens on the right and in the middle will determine the rest. Some moderate Tories might join the Lib Dems, and the right-leaning Tories might join Reform.
Predictions Show Tories Could Drop to 66 Seats
Some estimates show that the Tories could end up with 66 seats, down from 376 in 2019. The Lib Dems are estimated to take 59. If they could win a handful more and Reform take another couple, the Tories might end up out of opposition.
Revolution in UK Politics
A dreadful election performance has been an issue in the making for the Tories, with ten years of in-fighting and sideshows coming home to roost. Either way, it’ll shake up the main parties, and they’ll learn from it.
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