Analysis of eyewitness reports and Ukrainian Military information says that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused the death or injury of over 450,000 Russian servicemen so far. The question is, how long can they last like this?
Claims Made by the Minister for the Armed Forces
The UK’s Minister for the Armed Forces, Leon Docherty, announced the figure. He also said that thousands more had deserted the Russian military since the conflict started.
Figures Backed up by Battlefield Analysts
NoelReports uses X (formerly Twitter) to report Russian battlefield casualties, as per the report from Ukrainian general staff. They put the figure at almost 470,000 Russian casualties.
‘Fog of War’ Causes Confusion
Battlefield analysis is never 100% accurate because it’s not always possible to tell if a casualty is killed or severely injured. There can also be confusion about the fate of servicemen within vehicles that have been struck.
Propaganda Inflates Figures
There’s also the PR element, where both sides will likely over-report the opposition casualty numbers and under-report their own. The Western analysts monitoring the situation say the Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties are reasonably accurate, however.
Russian Military Equipment Supplies Hit Hard
There’s more to the war than casualty numbers – we also have to take into account the number of pieces of Russian military equipment that have been destroyed.
Oryx Documenting Russian Equipment Losses
A well-respected military blogging community, Oryx, has put the number of lost Russian equipment at over 15,500 pieces as of February. These are all visually confirmed losses only, so the real figure may be significantly higher.
Figures From Ukrainian Military Sources Much Higher
NoelReports uses Ukrainian military sources for its reporting, and they estimate Russian equipment losses at over 65,000. This includes non-fighting vehicles such as support trucks, etc.
Russian Military Personnel Reserves
The figures from the Russian side are unclear at best. Reports from Statsita suggest that they have around 3.6 million active service personnel and a population of 69.5 million people to call up from.
Impact on War Effort
The International Institute for Strategic Studies recently released a report that says, “It is our assessment, therefore, that Russia will be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another 2–3 years, and maybe even longer.”
War Impacting Russian Equipment Quality
The other notable point from the study was that the replacement equipment is less likely to be as good as the current stock. This might accelerate the level of losses as Ukraine is re-supplied with modern Western equipment.
New Western Weaponry to Reach Ukraine
The Russian forces have the upper hand in the war because the American support weaponry has been slow to arrive. That said, substantial new rounds of support will be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks.
Ukraine Air Power Set to Improve
Currently, Ukraine has no real air force, but that will be addressed with the arrival of F-16 fighter jets later this year and into next year. While they won’t match the Russian numbers, they’ll certainly improve Ukraine’s attack and defence capabilities.
Zelensky Confirmed Arrival of the Jets
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “This year, new fighter jets will be in our skies, and we have to make this year an effective one in defending ourselves against Russian guided bombs, Russian aircraft and their missiles.”
Domestic Weapons Production in Ukraine Ramping Up
Through a combination of Western companies setting up factories in Ukraine and the Ukrainian government allocating more funds to weapons production, domestic weapons production is going to triple in the coming year.
Western Companies Establishing Factories in Ukraine
Christian Seear, the Ukraine operations director for BAE Systems, said that the moves by the weapons manufacturer to establish a factory in the country sends “a critical message — that you can go into Ukraine and set things up.”
NATO Countries Rearming
Alongside the increase in weapons production in Ukraine, global weapons production is ramping back up. Thanks to Ukraine’s huge amounts of Western stockpiles, NATO countries are having to rearm, so the weapons sector is ramping up production.
Western Weaponry Proving Effective Against Russian Forces
The reality is that the NATO-supplied weapons are far more effective than their Russian equivalents, causing heavy losses on the Russian side. Better missile accuracy, improved defence quality in vehicles, and more reliable artillery are helping the Ukrainians.
Russians Losing Average of 1000 Troops per Day
The figures since the start of the war show that average daily losses (death and injury) are around 1000 per day. As these figures mount, the Russians have to rely on less experienced soldiers, who aren’t as effective in the field.
Western Appetite for Ukrainian Victory Steeled
The war is ongoing, but recent pledges by the West show they’re in no mind to let Russia win this war. Peace in Europe (and the world) will only be fully achieved if Russia withdraws from Ukraine and is rendered an obsolete military power as a result of its efforts.
The post Defence Expert Analysis Reveals Over 450,000 Russian War Casualties first appeared on Swift Feed.
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