After President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race, major UK bookmakers have recalibrated the odds, casting doubt on Donald Trump’s path to victory. Here’s the full story.
Country’s Best Interest
President Joe Biden announced his decision to end his reelection campaign, stating that it would be in the “best interest of my party and the country” to allow a new Democratic candidate to face off against Donald Trump in November 2024. Biden, who faced mounting pressure following a poor performance in a CNN debate in June, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.
Betting Odds Shift
Following Biden’s withdrawal from the Presidential race, the shockwaves from his decision continue to reverberate around the country, and, consequently, several major UK bookmakers have revised the betting odds surrounding the 2024 election.
Trump’s Odds Decrease
Following Biden’s announcement, bookmakers in the UK and Ireland swiftly adjusted their odds. Before the announcement, multiple bookmakers gave Trump a 71 per cent chance of winning the election.
Marginal Decrease
However, this figure has since declined, with odds ranging from a 66% to a 69% chance of Trump’s victory. Leon Blackman, a spokesperson for Oddschecker, confirmed that Trump’s chances experienced a “marginal decrease” post-Biden’s withdrawal.
Decline in Bets
However, things were not as immediately rosy for Trump as they might first appear, with Blackman telling Newsweek, “We’ve seen a larger decrease in the number of total bets on our site for Trump, as his percentage of total bets has declined from 62.7 percent to 44.6 percent following the Biden news.”
Growing Uncertainty
This shift suggests a growing uncertainty among gamblers regarding Trump’s prospects, which the bookmakers have reacted to accordingly.
Harris’s Candidacy
With Biden stepping aside, Kamala Harris has been chosen as the Democratic Presidential candidate. Harris confirmed her candidacy, pledging to unify the Democratic Party and the nation to defeat Trump.
Unite the Nation
Harris stated, “I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party — and unite our nation — to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project 2025 agenda.”
Rising Odds
Following her fiery declaration to run for the Democratic nomination, Harris’s odds rose significantly. Her odds of winning the election currently stand at 33%, though that figure is expected to increase as her candidacy solidifies.
Party Support
The Democratic Party has increasingly rallied around Harris since Biden’s decision not to seek reelection, with major figures such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Gen Z’s favourite politician, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Trump’s Reaction
Former President Donald Trump has taken the news that Biden has stepped down in the familiar calm and reserved way he treats any of his political opponents.
Harris’s Fundraising Surge
Following Biden’s exit from the presidential race, Harris’s campaign experienced a historic surge in donations, raising $81 million within 24 hours. This record-breaking fundraising effort, driven by more than 888,000 small-dollar donors, indicated solid grassroots support for Harris, who many Democrats believe has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden following his disastrous debate performance. Biden has since renamed his campaign finance account “Harris for President”.
Dynamic Shift
With Biden out of the race, the dynamics of the 2024 election have shifted dramatically. Harris’s emergence as the Democratic front-runner presents a new challenge for Trump, whose declining odds suggest growing uncertainty about his chances.
Reshaped Election
Biden’s withdrawal has not only reshaped the Democratic primary but also fundamentally changed the odds of Trump retaking the White House. As the election approaches, it remains to be seen which candidate will be the safer bet in the near future.
Featured Image Credit: Shutterstock / Evan El-Amin.