If you need any proof of the ‘Farage Effect’ on the right wing, the latest polling information provides it. For Sunak and the Tories, it makes for depressing reading.
Reform UK Climbing
Since his return to active campaigning for Reform UK, Nigel Farage has seen the party rise to 19% in the voting intention polls.
Likely to Win Easily
Having been catapulted into the safe seat of Clacton, we can expect (for the first time in 7 attempts) to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP.
Farage Has Emboldened the Right
By announcing his return, Farage emboldened the right-wing voters, giving them someone to rally behind.
Much to the Dismay of the Tories
The biggest losers following Farage’s return are the Tories. They’ve had their right-wing vote robbed from them without apology.
The Right Has Turned Their Back Completely
What’s worse for Sunak isn’t that the right-wing voters would prefer to vote for Farage; they actively dislike the Tory party now.
Data Shows Fury at Tories
YouGov polling shows that Only a third of Reform UK voters would vote Conservative if Reform UK wasn’t standing in their constituency.
Three Quarters Don’t Like Sunak
Further polling shows that of the Reform UK voters, 76% said they had an ‘Unfavourable view of Rishi Sunak’.
Why Should This Matter?
For centuries, the Conservative Party was the political home for anyone on the right of the centre. It’s why they’ve been the dominant party in the UK.
Now Right Wingers Have Options
Fed up with 14 years of poor government, those on the right have a legitimate choice – the Tories have a political rival on the right. And it’s hurting them.
Centre and Left Have Always Had Options
Centrists have been floating voters. On the left, there has been a choice between Labour and the Lib Dems – in some ways, in the past, they’ve cannibalised one another, allowing the Tories to win.
Complacency and In-Fighting Has Come Home to Roost
The floating voters have decided in their droves that they want nothing to do with the Tories. They’re voting Labour and Lib Dem, as the polling shows.
The Right Wing Unhappy
Those on the right are annoyed at the way Brexit has been dealt with and the lack of progress on immigration – literally the two biggest issues that matter to this cohort of voters.
Tories Have Themselves to Blame
After 14 years, they have nowhere to turn. It’s on them, and they have to own it. Their running of the country has cost them this election.
What Is Behind Reform UK’s Rise?
You can boil it down to two things – an incompetent Tory party and the cult of personality in Nigel Farage.
Personality Politics to the Fore
What’s happening here is very much ‘personality politics’, where voters are seduced by a person rather than their politics. Farage has been a one-trick-pony, but he’s never had to deliver.
Will Farage Deliver?
When (and that word is used intentionally) he wins his seat, it’ll be interesting to see how he copes with the day-to-day job of being an MP. Pointing out what’s wrong is easy – it’s much harder to do things right.
But Will It Matter?.
The curse of personality politics is that the voters care little about behaviour. Take Boris Johnson for example. He was a known liar; he was incompetent in many ways, and yet he still enjoys a lot of support from lots of Tories. Farage might have the same luck.
Farage Loves the Media – But It Turns
Nigel Farage has come to fame as a problem for the establishment – shouting about what’s wrong with Europe, immigration, taxation and the like. The media have lapped it up, but that could change.
Accountability Matters
Eventually, when you get your turn to drive, you’ve got to do it well. Nigel Farage won’t be fighting the establishment in less than a month – he’ll be part of it. If he doesn’t help to instigate many of his promises, patience will run out.
Short Term, Tories Are Cooked
Only time will tell whether or not Farage is a success. What we know now is that for at least the next five years, the Tories have to reinvent themselves. This version of them isn’t working.
The post Tories Struggle to Counter Reform UK’s Growing Influence first appeared on Now Buzz.
Featured Image Credit: Shutterstock / Martin Suker.