A YouGov poll around voting intentions in the upcoming general election has shown the share of the Tory vote is likely to fall even further. The right has suffered a reduction in likely vote, whereas the centre left has increased.
Sunak Remains Tight-Lipped About Election Date
When questioned about a potential election on Sky News, Rishi Sunak repeatedly refused to name a likely date, fuelling speculation an election announcement is due.
Upcoming Local Elections Hold the Key
One hundred and seven local authority elections are due to take place on Thursday across the UK. In the previous round (held in 2021), the Tories had a strong showing, winning an additional 235 seats.
Tories in Freefall Since
There was a lot of support for the Tories in 2021. Since then, we’ve had Partygate, the PPE scandals, three Prime Ministers, and a cost-of-living crisis. None of these will have helped.
Elections Give a Feel of the National Mood
Whilst local authority elections don’t determine the leadership of the country, they’re a good temperature check of the national mood. It’s expected that the elections will be a disaster for the Tories, and a big win for Labour and the Lib Dems.
Labour Heaping Pressure on Sunak to Name the Date
Labour’s Ellie Reeves said: “Rishi Sunak needs to stop dodging questions, running scared of the British people and name the date of the general election. The longer he clings on, the weaker he looks and the British people know it. Under the Tories the chaos of the last 14 years will just continue.”
Wes Streeting Pushing for Election Date
The Shadow Health Secretary said: “People are crying out for an opportunity to deliver their verdict on this Government and to vote for change. That’s why the Prime Minister bottled an election earlier this year. That’s why he’s bottling it now. That’s why he will have to be taken out of Downing Street by his fingernails by the end of the year.”
Latest Voting Intention Poll Showing a Shift
In the latest YouGov poll, the number of people saying they’d vote for Labour and the Lib Dems has increased, while the number saying they’d vote for the Conservatives or Reform UK has reduced.
Floating Voters Turned Off by the Right
The results echo those of similar polls, showing that the floating voters—those who are likely to change their minds depending on the leader and policies—are leaning towards the left this time.
Red Wall Turning Left Again
In the last election, the Tories swept to power in many parts thanks to the ‘red wall’ seats voting Conservative, showing a significant shift to the right. The Red Wall voted to leave the EU, so it showed faith in the Brexit project.
Tories’ Rudderless’ Without Brexit
Director of research at Redfield, Philip van Scheltinga, said: “The Conservatives breaking through in those seats in 2019 was a unique opportunity that perhaps only existed at that moment in time. You had a broad coalition of voters from across the country who otherwise do not have much in common . . . all voting Conservative. Once Brexit was done, the Conservatives were rudderless.”
Tories Failed to Keep Red Wall Trust
It was said at the time that the red wall ‘loaned’ the Tories their vote. However, there has been a complete failure to invest in the red wall regions, and none of the Brexit benefits we were promised have materialised, so we can expect the red wall to turn back to Labour.
Division in the Right Hurting Tory Chances
The traditional Tory vote has been further split post-Brexit. The rise of the further right (UKIP, then Reform UK) has seen them take more of the Tory vote than before, as Brexit has not delivered what it promised.
Reform UK Growing
Polling information shows that the right is still a substantial percentage of the vote. Reform UK ousted the Lib Dems as the 3rd largest political party in the country. Still, time will tell if the intention to vote for them materialises.
Yougov Polling Shows Voter Split
The latest poll shows that 45% of the votes will head to Labour, 20% to Conservative, 13% to Reform and 9% to the Lib Dems. The Green party is projected to win 7% of the votes.
Lib Dems Struggling, but Could Be Important
Whilst the Lib Dems appear to be struggling in the polls, they might be capable of winning enough vote share from the Tories to further help Labour. They might even cause a surprise or two, picking up the voters who don’t want to vote for Labour but don’t want to vote Green.
Polls Show Nation Definitely Heading Left
Having enjoyed relatively robust support for 12 of their 14 years in power, the Tories only have themselves to blame. A series of slip ups (mismanagement of Brexit, PPE, the economy) and constant in-fighting has done severe damage to their reputation.
Politics Has Been a Soap Opera
Political scandal has been around forever, but since the Tory in-fight that was Europe became a national issue, it has been scandal after scandal. Politicians have made the gossip columns as frequently as the front pages. Perhaps the nation is weary of it all?
Historical Trends Remain
The reality is almost all governments end in tears. Parties and politicians can stick around too long, and times change. Nations need fresh ideas. New enthusiasm. The nation took a step to the right and didn’t like it. It may be time to head back to the middle.
Labour Could Be a Welcome Relief
Wanderscot
While Starmer isn’t the charismatic leader many want for the country, he is a safe pair of hands when the UK needs to find a new place in the world. Independent of Europe and not sure where to turn. Maybe Labour will have the answers. The Tories didn’t.
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